How Russia earned billions of dollars and became real winner in US-Israel war against Iran

The confrontation between the United States and Iran has complicated international politics. The escalation of tensions in West Asia has created a favorable situation for Russia, with analysts calling Moscow the real winner.

The conflict between the US and Iran shows that a crisis in one place can affect the entire world. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in attacks on February 28 last month further exacerbated the situation. The attacks and retaliatory strikes have increased tensions in West Asia. The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has affected oil supplies, impacting the global economy. This situation has also given other major powers an opportunity to change their strategies, further complicating international politics.

Russia’s economic advantage

This conflict creates an awkward strategic situation for Vladimir Putin. Russia condemned the attacks and even provided some intelligence to Iran, but did not become directly involved. Its priority is Ukraine. The escalating tensions in West Asia have distracted the West, which could be beneficial for Russia. It is benefiting economically from the war. Oil prices rose as soon as the fighting began. This increased Russia’s earnings, as its oil also sold at a higher price. The blockade in Hormuz forced Asian countries to find new suppliers, where Russian oil became an easy option and its market expanded.

Russia’s earnings will increase

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This is no small incident. 30–45% of Russia’s budget comes from oil and gas. Rising prices could generate billions of dollars in additional revenue, which would bolster its war economy and military operations in Ukraine. European Union President Antonio Costa described Russia as the biggest winner in this crisis. He said that high energy prices are benefiting Russia, while resources are being divided between different fronts. Ukraine’s security could also be weakened by the diversion of weapons and defense systems.

Kyiv will be weak

Precision-guided munitions, Patriot interceptors, and production capacity are being used in US and Israeli operations. These could be used to assist Ukraine in its conflict against Russia. Even a slight reduction could weaken Kyiv’s air defenses and long-range strike capabilities. Russia could exploit this opportunity in its next military plan.

Iran and Russia will be closer

From a geopolitical perspective, this crisis will further strengthen the growing ties between Russia and Iran. Military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries has increased since the 2025 agreement. Russia could also provide intelligence and assistance in exchange for Iranian drones in Ukraine. A weakening Iranian government could become more dependent on Russia, increasing its influence in West Asia. However, it would be wrong to consider Russia a major force, as it was unable to prevent these attacks or defend Iran. This clearly indicates that despite cooperation, Russia wishes to avoid direct military intervention.

The risk is also not low

It is being said that this crisis could also backfire against Russia in the long run. If Iran’s government falls or it is forced to compromise with the US, Russia would lose a key ally. Its position in Syria has already been weakened by the weakening of Bashar al-Assad. Furthermore, damage to Iranian drone-manufacturing factories in the attacks could also disrupt Russia’s military supplies.

Immediate benefits

In fact, Russia seeks immediate benefits such as increased oil revenue, distracting the West, and increasing influence over Iran. It also seeks to avoid direct confrontation. Therefore, this strategy is risky. A prolonged conflict could increase instability in the region and harm Russia’s investments and influence. Meanwhile, if the US and Israel succeed quickly, the West’s attention could shift back to Ukraine.

situation unclear

Although Russia appears to be gaining advantages in various ways right now, this situation will not last forever. History shows that external conflicts provide temporary advantages to large countries, but they do not last long. Russia is currently reaping the benefits, but whether it will be able to convert this advantage into lasting power is not yet clear.

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