Cyclone Akvan: Fresh cyclone threat looms over Bay of Bengal after Arnab and Murasu, three states on alert

Following Cyclones Arnab and Murasu, concerns have once again mounted over the possibility of another cyclonic storm developing over the Bay of Bengal

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New Delhi: After Cyclone Arnab and Murasu, concerns have risen once again over the possibility of another cyclonic storm developing over the Bay of Bengal named AkvanAccording to the reports, the name was proposed by IranHowever, there is still no clear picture of its potential impact on West Bengal.

As per the weather experts, an upper-air cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal by November 12Under its influence, a low-pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal by November 13.

Favourable sea conditions and sufficiently warm ocean temperatures could strengthen the weather systemHowever, the formation of a low-pressure area does not necessarily mean it will intensify into a cyclonic stormFor that to happen, favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions are essential.

Here are some of the key details:

• Three possible scenarios are currently being considered regarding the movement of the potential weather system, as per the experts.
• The first possibility is that it could intensify and move towards Tamil Nadu and the southern coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh.
• The second scenario involves the system reaching the southwest Bay of Bengal before changing its course over the sea.
• The third, and relatively less likely, possibility is that it could move towards the Myanmar coast.
• It may be recalled that Cyclone Arnab made landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast in the final week of October.
• Subsequently, Cyclone Murasu also affected the eastern coast in the early days of November.

Climate change increased tropical Cyclone Arnab’s damage by 33 per cent: Study

Climate change increased the damage caused by the tropical Cyclone Arnab, which struck eastern India on October 28, by 33 per cent, resulting in tens of millions of dollars in additional direct economic losses compared to a pre-industrial climate baseline, according to a new study.

It added that the storm brought intense rain, peak 1-minute sustained winds of up to 202 kilometres per hour, and severe damage to infrastructure across Andhra Pradesh.

The study was carried out by researchers at the Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute and published on Thursday.

For their analysis, researchers used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) to simulate Cyclone Arnab under current conditions (plus 1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels) versus a counterfactual climate without human-induced warming.

“Climate change increased Cyclone Arnab’s maximum wind speed by approximately 5 per cent, and intensified its eyewall rainfall rate by 11 per cent at landfall,” according to the study.

It also revealed that direct damage to physical assets in India was estimated to be 33 per cent higher than it would have been in a pre-industrial climate baseline, attributing roughly 25 per cent of the total economic damage directly to climate change.