Lockdown making a comeback? Will the West Asia energy crisis trigger a COVID-like shutdown, and how prepared is India?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent addresses to Parliament during the West Asia crisis, acknowledged the seriousness of the current situation.

New Delhi: The escalating crisis in the Middle East is continuing to lead global crude prices higher while tightening energy supplies. It is important to note that there is no immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and hence many countries, particularly across Asia, are facing intense pressure. The situation resembles a slow-burning crisis, where the strain builds steadily with each passing week. Due to the conflict in the West Asia, ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a halt. Notably, a large portion of the world’s oil passes through this route, and oil prices have now surged to USD 112 per barrel. Gas prices have risen to USD 5 per gallon in the United States. Everything is becoming more expensive as transportation costs increase.

The prices of goods in stores are steadily rising. Food security is also at risk because fertilizers essential for food production are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. If farmers have to pay more, food prices will also increase.

Is a COVID-19–style lockdown on the horizon due to the current situation?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent addresses to Parliament during the West Asia crisis, acknowledged the seriousness of the current situation. In his speech, the prime minister said that India must be “prepared like the times of Covid”, prompting a coordinated response and readiness.

PM Modi also said that the Middle East the crisis has created “unprecedented economic and security challenges,” especially due to energy supply disruptions. According to him, the impact of the war could be long-lasting and serious for the global economy.

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Modi also reassured that there is no immediate energy crisis in India, supplies of petrol, diesel, and LPG are being maintained smoothly, and the government is actively diversifying imports and securing supply routes.

Fuel rationing has begun across the world.

According to the reports, several countries have started implementing oil rationing. In Japan, fuel rationing has been enforced, where energy vouchers are being distributed. South Korea is also witnessing similar rationing measures. Long queues for petrol are being seen in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. The Australian government has advised people to cut down on the non-essential travel.

India imports around 80 percent of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, while Pakistan is already facing an economic crisis, which has been further worsened by rising oil prices.

Situation in India:

India is witnessing the impact on the ground, especially with cooking gas (LPG).
In some cities, delays, long queues, and even suspension of new LPG connections are witnessed.
In many places, people are waiting days for cylinders, and black-market prices have surged
India has prioritised domestic demand over exports, cut industrial gas supply to conserve fuel,
India has also increased LPG production and rerouted shipments and asked citizens to avoid panic buying.
The Modi government has set up special task forces and empowered groups to continuously assess the situation and respond quickly to disruptions in energy, food, and supply chains.

“Lockdown in India” has witnessed a massive surge in top Google searches. Experts are of the opinion that it is largely driven by a mix of Covid-era memories and fresh anxiety over the ongoing West Asia crisis.

The spike coincides with the March 24 anniversary of the 2020 nationwide lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which continues to remain a deeply etched public memory.

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The Times Of Bengal