Yogendra Yadav predicted that the BJP would win 240 to 260 seats, and its NDA partners would contribute 35 to 45 more, which would make the coalition get 275 to 305 seats.
Political analyst Prashant Kishor, who predicted that the BJP will repeat its 2019 Lok Sabha performance but not exceed 370 seats, sided with Yogendra Yadav’s forecast that showed BJP coming back to power for the third time. Kishor said that while the BJP is likely to replicate its success from the 2019 elections, it may fall short of surpassing the 370-seat mark. On the other hand, Yogendra Yadav, another prominent analyst, offered a divergent forecast, indicating that the BJP, with the support of its allies, could secure a third consecutive term in power.
Despite their shared belief in the BJP’s return to power, Kishor and Yadav diverged on the specific number of seats the party is expected to secure. Kishor dismissed the possibility of the BJP achieving a staggering 370-seat majority on its own, let alone surpassing the 400-seat mark as claimed by some party leaders. However, he maintained that the BJP’s seat tally is unlikely to dip below 270, a crucial threshold for government formation.
In contrast, Yadav projected a more conservative estimate, suggesting that the BJP may struggle to cross the 260-seat mark and could find it challenging to breach the 300-seat milestone.
Taking to X on Friday (May 24), Prashant Kishor shared a screenshot of Yogendra Yadav’s video where he predicted the results of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. “272 seats are required to form a government in the country and BJP/NDA has 303/323 seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha. (Shiv Sena won 18 seats as part of NDA but is no longer with them). Now, you can judge for yourself whose government is being formed. You will know on 4 June who is talking about whom,” Prashant Kishor tweeted along with the screenshot of Yogendra Yadav’s prediction video.
देश में चुनाव और सामाजिक राजनीतिक विषयों की समझ रखने वालों में एक विश्वसनीय चेहरा @_YogendraYadav जी ने 2024 Lok Sabha elections का अपना “फ़ाइनल आकलन” साझा किया है।
योगेन्द्र जी के मुताबिक इन चुनावों में बीजेपी को 240-260 और एनडीए की साथी दलों को 35-45 सीटें मिल सकती हैं। मतलब… pic.twitter.com/B1E3NaBEKa
— Prashant Kishor (@PrashantKishor) May 24, 2024
Contentious ‘400 paar’ Claim
Both analysts refuted the BJP’s ambitious ‘400 paar’ claim, asserting that such an outcome is impossible.
Yogendra Yadav predicted that the BJP would win 240 to 260 seats, and its NDA partners would contribute 35 to 45 more, which would make the coalition get 275 to 305 seats. In contrast, Yadav predicted that Congress would win 85 to 100 seats, and its INDIA bloc members would get another 120 to 135, making the Opposition-led alliance bag 205 to 235 seats.
Note: A party needs to win 272 seats of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha to form a government.
Prashant Kishor’s prediction
Prashant Kishor, in an exclusive interview with India Today TV on Tuesday (May 21), predicted that the BJP would comfortably cross the majority mark because there wasn’t any significant widespread anger against the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
He claimed that the BJP’s stronghold remains intact in North and West regions, with a projected increase in seats in the South and East.
“There may be disappointment, unfulfilled aspirations, but we have not heard of widespread anger,” Prashant Kishor said, hinting that the BJP may not be able to achieve its ambitious ‘370 seats’ target.
Kishor had first came to light after working with Narendra Modi in the 2012 Gujarat elections and 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Thereafter he worked with Nitish Kumar in the Gujarat assembly elections, Jagan in the Andhra assembly polls, MK Stalin in the Tamil Nadu assembly polls and Mamata Banerjee in the Bengal assembly elections. He is now the head of political party Jan Suraaj which is hoping to win the next assembly polls.
