The IMD has issued a major alert regarding the 2026 monsoon. According to the Meteorological Department, below-normal rainfall is expected across the country from June to September. The effects of the weakened monsoon are likely to be more pronounced in northwest, central, and southern India.
Published: May 29, 2026, 1:29 PM IST
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Is it going to be a tougher June? IMD predicts less rain, hotter days; THESE states may have more heatwave days (PTI image)
As June arrives, people’s eyes are usually fixed on the skies. Farmers begin preparing their fields. In cities, people begin hoping for relief from the heat. However, the emerging monsoon outlook this year has raised concerns. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has clearly indicated that most parts of the country may receive less than normal rainfall in June 2026.
Furthermore, rainfall during the entire southwest monsoon season is predicted to be only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This means that the heat is not going to abate this year. Difficulties may increase on many fronts, from farms to power generation and drinking water shortages. The most concerning factor is the possibility of a weak monsoon in large parts of northwest, central, and southern India.
This warning comes at a time when the country is already facing intense heat and heatwaves. Temperatures are consistently breaking records in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat. Meteorologists say that an El Niño condition is developing in the Pacific Ocean, which could have a direct impact on the Indian monsoon. El Niño typically increases sea temperatures and weakens rainfall in India. Although the IOD in the Indian Ocean is currently in a neutral state, it does not appear to be significantly strengthening the monsoon. In such a situation, the double onslaught of rainfall and heat wave in June could increase difficulties for the people. The IMD has also advised the states to strengthen their preparations in advance.
Monsoon may weaken in June
- According to the IMD, the period from June to September 2026 is most likely to see below-normal rainfall across the country. The Meteorological Department estimates that this year’s monsoon performance may be below average. The greatest impact is expected in northwest India, central India, and the southern peninsular region. The risk of low rainfall has also been expressed in the Monsoon Core Zone, i.e., agriculture-based areas. This has led to increased concern in agriculturally-based states.
- Temperatures are expected to be above normal in most parts of the country in June. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMD), Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh may experience more heatwave days than normal. Heatwaves may also intensify in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Himachal Pradesh. This means that the risk of both less rainfall and more heat is looming.
- The impact of low rainfall will not be limited to the weather alone. Its greatest impact could be on agriculture. If adequate rainfall is not received in June and July, sowing of paddy, pulses, and other Kharif crops could be affected. Reservoir levels in many states are already low, which could further worsen the water shortage. Power generation is also likely to be affected, as hydropower projects in many parts of the country rely on monsoon water.
El Nino increased tension
Meteorologists believe that this year’s El Niño event could have a detrimental effect on the monsoon. During El Niño, the Pacific Ocean’s temperature rises above normal, weakening India’s monsoon winds. This is why the International Meteorological Department (IMD) has already issued a warning of reduced rainfall. While normal rainfall is expected in Northeast India, conditions may remain challenging across much of the country.
Preparation advice given to states
The IMD has advised states to begin preparations now to deal with heatwaves and potential water shortages. Hospitals, electricity departments, and water supply agencies have been put on alert. Farmers are also being advised to monitor weather updates and consider water-intensive crops. The coming weeks will determine whether the monsoon brings relief or causes concern.
