Hindered by a strong El Niño, India’s monsoon faces a 15% overall deficit as retreat conditions build over west Rajasthan by September 19, though IMD forecasts short-term scattered rainfall across several northern and western states before the withdrawal.
Updated: September 14, 2026, 10:15 PM IST
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New Delhi: Vehicles crawl amid heavy traffic congestion on the ITO Ring Road following monsoon rain in New Delhi on Tuesday, July 28, 2026(Photo: IANS/Wasim Sarvar)
IMD Monsoon update: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that the southwest monsoon is expected to begin its retreat around September 19 from parts of west Rajasthan, slightly later than the normal September 17 timelineImpacted heavily by a strengthening El Niño, the all-India monsoon deficit currently stands at -15%, leaving key western, southern and northeastern districts with unbridged shortfallsHowever, active weather systems are set to bring a final flurry of widespread rainfall to northwest, central and southern regions throughout this week.
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Withdrawal Timeline & Deficit: The monsoon retreat is scheduled to start around September 19 from west Rajasthan, trailing behind last year’s early withdrawal onset on September 14, as the nationwide rainfall deficit remains at -15%.
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Prevailing Weather Systems: Rainy conditions are being driven by a low-pressure area across southwest Madhya Pradesh, southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat, a multi-state trough and an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal near Odisha and West Bengal.
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Regional Rain Forecast: Fairly widespread rains are expected over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad (Sept 15–17), Punjab, Haryana and Delhi (Sept 16–17), along with isolated activity across Rajasthan (Sept 15–17) and Uttar Pradesh (till Sept 18).
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Official IMD Statement: “Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” IMD said in a statement on Monday.
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Expert Insight: Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet said conditions look ideal for the withdrawal to commence by the end of this week“We expect it to happen by September 20Some decent rain is likely in the region before that,” he said.
Delhi-NCR braces for another spell of rain, dry weather likely from September 17
The national capital is likely to witness another spell of rain on Monday, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting light showers at several places during the dayDelhi has experienced intermittent rainfall over the past few weeks, and similar conditions are expected to persist in the coming daysAccording to the IMD’s latest forecast, the city will have a generally cloudy sky, with very light to light rain likely at a few places during the morningAnother spell of light rain may occur from the afternoon through the evening.
The maximum temperature is likely to remain between 32 and 34 degrees Celsius, while the minimum temperature is expected to settle between 23 and 25 degrees Celsius.
The weather is expected to remain variable through the rest of the weekThe IMD has forecast very light to light rain in Delhi on September 15 and 16, with generally cloudy conditions and showers likely at a few places from the forenoon to the afternoon hours.
(With inputs from agencies)
