Who has the highest chances of reaching the play-offs and who is most likely to join the Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants as the eliminated teams in IPL 2026? Let’s find out
Published: May 13, 2026 4:14 PM IST
The picture is getting clearer with each passing day as to who will finish in the top 4 play-offs spots in the on-going Indian Premier League 2026 season. After last night’s result in match number 56 where the Gujarat Titans defeated the Sunrisers Hyderabad by 82 runs, the shake up in the standings saw Hyderabad drop down to 3rd whereas the Punjab Kings, who seemed untouchable at the start of the tournament, took the number 4 spot.
Reigning champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru, who will be locking horns with the Kolkata Knight Riders tonight, came down to 2nd. If RCB suffer a defeat today, then it will benefit teams like Rajasthan Royals, Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals and KKR, all of whom that sit in the bottom half of the table.
But who has the highest chances of reaching the play-offs and who is most likely to join the Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants as the eliminated teams in IPL 2026? Let’s find out.
Gujarat’s probability spikes up to 95%; Hyderabad and Punjab endure a slight hit
Starting with the table toppers Gujarat Titans. After last night’s big-margin victory, which boosted their net run-rate +0.551, have the best chances of finishing within the play-offs spots in terms of points. As of now, the Shubman Gill-led side has 99.6% chances of featuring in the knockouts along with a probability of 84.5% to finish either 1st or 2nd.
The reigning champions RCB, led by Rajat Patidar, has 88.1% chances of finishing in the play-off spots with a probability of 59% to join Gujarat among the top two teams. 3rd placed Sunrisers Hyderabad has 76.8% chances of a top 4 finish and just 35.5%, in terms of having an advantage in the play-offs by finishing in the top 2.
Shreyas Iyer’s Punjab Kings, whose play-offs aspirations have taken a hit following back-to-back 4 losses, still remain well on course with a probability of 64.5% but they have just 28.8% chances of becoming a top two team in this edition.
Delhi and Kolkata’s journey to top 4 remains distant
All those sitting at the bottom half of the table, except already eliminated MI and LSG, can continue to work hard and dream of reaching the last 4 stages as belief can go a long way, especially at this juncture of the tournament.
5th placed Chennai are the favorites, from the bottom-half, with 53.9% chances but the probability of a top two finish remains distant at 22%. Behind them are Rajasthan with 53.8% with odds suggesting that they have only 18.2% chances of finishing as the top 2 sides.
The teams with the lowest chances of reaching the play-offs are Delhi and Kolkata, who have probabilities of just 12.8% and 3.2% respectively.
When will the IPL 2026 play-offs begin?
The IPL 2026 play-offs will begin in 2 weeks’ time with the 1st qualifier taking place on Tuesday, May 26th. The remaining two qualifiers/eliminator are slated for May 27th and May 29th. The finale, which has been shifted to the Narendra Modi Stadium, will be on Sunday, May 31.
