With only 5 matches remaining in the league phase, here are all the scenarios and qualification chances for each and every team involved in the fight for the remaining 4th spot for the playoffs
Published: May 21, 2026 4:57 PM IST
The business end of the 2026 Indian Premier League season is not failing to deliver as we witnessed yet another scintillating contest between the Kolkata Knight Rider and the Mumbai Indians. The result, which remained in favor of KKR who won by 4 wickets at the Eden Gardens, had massive implications on the race to play-offs.
While it didn’t have any effect on Mumbai who are already eliminated from the competition, the result heavily boosted Kolkata’s aspirations for top 4. The Ajinkya Rahane-led side had an horrendous start to the season, losing 5 out of their first 6 matches with one of those turning out to be a washout against the Punjab Kings.
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However, since April 19 it all started to turnaround for the 3-time champions who won back-to-back four matches to keep themselves alive in the top 4 race. Kolkata did have a slight hiccup against the reigning champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru but the East Indian outfit fought back in their next two matches, beating the Gujarat Titans (by 29 runs) and Mumbai Indians (4 wickets) to blow the playoffs race wide open.
With only 5 matches remaining in the league phase, here are all the scenarios and qualification chances for each and every team involved in the fight for the remaining 4th spot for the playoffs.
Rajasthan Royals
Inaugural (2008) winners Rajasthan Royals has the best chances of joining Bengaluru, Gujarat and Hyderabad in the play-offs. All they will have to do is win their last league match against Mumbai and attain the cut-off 16-point mark, something that no other franchise can achieve except them.
However, if the Royals lose to Mumbai, then they will have to wish for the losses of Kolkata, Punjab, Chennai and Delhi. RR has about 50% chances of sealing a spot in the last 4 stages.
Punjab Kings
When the season reached the mid-way point, no one, including the Punjab Kings team, would have thought that they will be stuck in the dilemma of probabilities. After winning back-to-back 6 matches, Punjab lost the same number of games consecutively to remain stuck at 13 points.
If Shreyas Iyer and co are to fill the remaining playoff spot, then they have no choice but to win their last league match against the Lucknow Super Giants and also hope for Rajasthan to lose their fixture against Mumbai. Punjab has 19% chances of reaching the knockouts.
Kolkata Knight Riders
We already talked about Kolkata’s stunning comeback above and the equation is very simple for them. Just like Punjab, KKR will have to win their last match against the Delhi Capitals and hope for Rajasthan to lose their game.
If Punjab and Kolkata both win their games and Rajasthan lose theirs, then the final team will be decided on the basis of net run-rate. KKR also has 19% chances of reaching the next stage.
Also Read: KKR Vs MI, IPL 2026: Kolkata keep their play-offs hopes alive with stunning 4-wicket win over Mumbai
Delhi Capitals
The path seems very difficult for the Delhi Capitals, who have to beat Kolkata on the last matchday of the league stages and hope for Punjab, Rajasthan and Chennai to lose their games. Overall, Delhi has only 9% chances of reaching the play-offs.
Chennai Super Kings
Last but not the least, 5-time champions Chennai Super Kings also has no option but to beat the Gujarat Titans in their last league outing tonight and then hope for the other playoff contenders to lose their games. Out of all the 5 teams, vying for the exclusive 4th spot, Chennai has the lowest chance at 3%.
