The most interesting fight which Maharashtra is going to see this time is among the Pawar family, where Ajit Pawar’s wife (NCP), Sunetra Pawar is going to fight against Sharad Pawar’s daughter and her sister in law Supriya Sule.
Maharashtra was supposed to face major 10 municipal elections during 2022, however after the breakup of Shinde faction from Shiv Sena in 2022 & then of Ajit Pawar in 2023, not a single election was conducted except a few bypolls. In those by polls also in Andheri’s Mumbai and Pune by poll was won by MVA alliance. Rutuja Latke, the candidate of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), won the byelection of Andheri (East) and Congress’s Ravindra Dhangekar won Pune’s election, which BJP lost almost after 28 years.
First Test Of Ajit Pawar & Eknath Shinde’s New Alliance With BJP
Though Eknath Shinde came with 40 MLAs and 12 MPs and Ajit Pawar came with 41 MLAs still how much vote share they can bring for the BJP along with them is still very uncertain. Though they have MLAs, MPS with them still the cadre of Karyakarta’s (party members) at ground level still seems to be there with Shiv Sena (Thackeray) & NCP (Sharad Pawar). So in the election how much help BJP will get in those constituencies from Shinde Or Ajit’s local cadre, where they are directly fighting against Uddhav or Sharad Pawar is doubful.
Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena is demanding for more seats, they brought 12 MPs with them, but BJP didn’t give them all the seats and also forced them to replace the candidates where they are doubtful of success. There are still 5 seats where BJP-Shinde-Ajit led Mahayuti have’t declared the candidates.
BJP is able to convert their vote share into winning seats, according to the TV9 survey, which also gave 25 seats to BJP, but gave only 3 seats to Shinde led Shiv Sena. According to both the surveys Ajit Pawar faction may not win a single seat given to his party.
As BJP is maintaining their performance, but Ajit & Shinde led factions are not able to maintain the seats, is considered as a major reason in delaying seat sharing by BJP.
As no major elections are fought under the leadership of Eknath Shinde or after the Ajit Pawar has joined Mahayuti, it’s difficult for BJP to assess their performance or identify whether their voters can actually turn towards BJP or Mahayuti or they will be loyal to Uddhav or Sharad Pawar.
Challenges In Front of MVA alliance
MVA announced its seat sharing plan, where Congress is to contest 17 seats, Sena (UBT) 21, and NCP (SP) 10. Though MVA took a lead in the seat sharing announcement, it showed cracks in the alliance many times. First major challenge MVA is facing is at the Sangli seat. Whenrin Uddhav Thackeray announced its candidate, Wrestler Chandrahar Patil before even MVA’s official announcement of seat sharing haapened.
Congress leaders wanted the seat for their young leader Vishal Patil, grandson of ex-CM Vasantdada Patil who has now decided to contest as an Independent candidate. This has made the contest triangular in Sangli, with ‘independent’ Patil giving sitting BJP MP Sanjaykaka Patil and Sena (UBT) candidate Chandrahar Patil. Wherein Uddhav led Sena faction has to fight with independent Vishal Patil and BJP at the same time.
Supriya Sule VS Sunetra Pawar
The most interesting fight which Maharashtra is going to see this time is among the Pawar family, where Ajit Pawar’s wife (NCP), Sunetra Pawar is going to fight against Sharad Pawar’s daughter and her sister in law Supriya Sule. BJP has done this double game with Pawat family by not only breaking their party but making Ajit Pawar to fight against his own cousin sister. From Baramati which is the bastion of wherein Sharad Pawar and his daughter Supriya Sule has been winning an election constantly even during Modi waves.
If Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar defeats Supriya Sule it will be considered as big blow for MVA and also against Sharad Pawar’s national stature, where in BJP can get a big gain, claiming they defeated Sharad Pawar (His daughter) in their home ground, whereas if Supriya Sule defeats Sunetra Pawar, they can keep Ajit Pawar limited in Vidhan Sabha seat sharing or ministership in state level.
Prakash Ambedkar’s Factor Against MVA Alliance
Someone who became the biggest spoiler for the Congress & Undivided NCP alliance in 2019 was the grandson of Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar, Prakash Ambedkar. His party vanchit Bahujan Aghadiallied with Owaisi’s AIMIM in 2019 and became the highest vote cutter for Congress as it won 14% vote share. It affected Congress majorly on its 8 to 10 seats in 2019 wherein they were leading in 2nd or 3rd position. It should also be taken into the consideration that it was fighting with the AIMIM in 2019 and currently they are fighting alone in the state.
Sympathy Wave For Uddhav Thackeray & Sharad Pawar
First Eknath Shinde led faction left the Shiv Sena along with 40 MLAs and then with 12 MPs. Despite several appeals they didn’t come back and Uddhav had to resign. But according to several legal advisors Uddhav should have faced the floor test in Maharashtra Vidhan sabha which he avoided and resigned 1 day prior to the floor test. During this moment, Uddhav portrayed himself as someone who is ready to leave the government and betrayed by his own party workers.
Election commission gave the name ‘Shiv Sena’ and its bow and arrow symbol to the Shinde camp, was highly criticized and attacked by party leaders, to show how EC is targeting Uddhav and its BJPs plan to destroy Thackeray name and family. The wave again turned towards Uddhav Thackeray when Rahul Narvekar, Vidhan Sabha spokesperson did not declare any MLAs a faulty under anti-defection law despite the Supreme Court’s order which stated that Bharat Gogawale’s (Shinde camp leader) whip is illegal.
In 2022, when there were constant news which showed Ajit Pawar was leaving the party with MLAs supporting him, known for his unknown political games, Sharad Pawar resigned as a party president in 2022, after which it became national news, wherein Pawar himself left the highest position in the party, which was opposed by the ground level cadre across Maharashtra. By this move Pawar tried to show though you are leaving the party, the ground level cadre is with me.
Ajit Pawar left the party along with some MLAS and joined the BJP alliance. Exactly repeating the same things for NCP, Election commission took the symbol and name of Sharad Pawar led NCP who is fighting for the party at the age of 82. Where in party leaders are portraying him as a victim by BJP and his own nephew Ajit Pawar.
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