Even after maintaining the current 90% to 100% strike rate in North India, in order to meet the target of 370, BJP still needs to win 160 seats from the rest of India. Whereas their alliance needs to win 3o seats to cross 400 seats target.
The BJP won 303 seats in 17th Lok Sabha by increasing its 2014’s tally of 282 numbers by 21 seats. The party had a much higher vote share than 2014 of 37.7 percent as compared to 31.34 in 2014. This year PM Modi has set the target of 400 for NDA and 370 for BJP. Since independence, only Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress was the only party who won 414 seats after the assaination of Indira Gandhi in 1984.
The question now arises after 10 years in power can BJP match its biggest ever target of 400 seats? If yes, then what are the challenges the party is going to face and in which states, regions or on any specific seats the saffron party needs to focus on?
BJP’s Current Situation In Parliament
Though BJP won 303 seats in 2019 elections, but by February 2024 when the Lok Sabha Election 2024 were announced the party had only 289 MPs with them. As 11 MPs resigned who were elected in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan state assembly as a MLA. Two MPS Rattan Lal Kataria in Haryana and Girish Bapat in Maharashtra passed away before completing the term and Babul Supriyo left the party.
So the challenge which lies in front of BJP is to retain their current 303 seats, for which they first need to win these 14 seats which they lost over state assembly elections and even they can retain their 303 seats, still they need to win more 67 seats, in order to meet 370 seats target for BJP and their alliance partner needs to win 30 seats across India to achieve 400 seats target.
What challenges BJP is going to face to retain the current 303 seats and where do they need to focus in order to win more 70 seats for their party and help alliance partners to win the remaining 30 seats in order to achieve the target of 400 seats? Let us take a look at state wise, region wise and seat wise focus BJP needs to make to make their dream possible.
States BJP Needs To Focus For 400 Seats
Uttar Pradesh
The highest hope BJP has is from the state which gave them the majority number of seats i.e. 71 in 2014 and 62 in 2019. Especially the after the inauguration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya BJP can gain more access in UP’s different constituency and this is the state has highest number of Lok Sabha seats. India has sent its maximum number of PM from the state, so its assumed that winning UP means winning India.
The challenge BJP is going to face from the India alliance is the Samajwadi Party and the Congress are fighting together in the state this time. Also, an unexpected protest by the farmers in some parts of the state can pose a threat to some seats.
Maharashtra
With 48 seats, the 2nd largest state is becoming halt in the saffron party’s path. In 2019 BJP won 23 seats and its alliance with the then undevided Shiv Sena won 18 seats. But after the alliance with Sena-BJP alliance is broken, BJP is likely to contest 30 seats and remaining 18 seats its new partner Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar). The alliance is still struggling to share the seats and declare the candidates, where in MVA alliance has already declared there majority of candidates and taken a lead in campaging.
BJP’s new alliance, also has a challenge to face Shiv Sena (Uddhav) faction, NCP (Sharad Pawar) faction & Congress together this time. BJP also needs to face a possible sympathy wave which is assumed to be from the side of Uddhav And Sharad Pawar factions especially after their MLAs & MPs left the party and also party name and symbol is taken from them by Election Commission.
Bihar
In Bihar, the BJP had won 17 seats last time and 39 seats in the alliance. But after the constant flips by the Nitish Kumar’s and emergence of Tejashwi Yadav and his party’s alliance with Congress can create a tough fight for BJP to maintain 2019’s performance.
Delhi
BJP won 7 out of the 7 seats in the state in 2019 & 2014, after arrest of Arvind Kejriwal and leveling charges against him of corruption, it’s interesting to see whether AAP turns it into a sympathy wave in their favour or let the BJP win all the seat, who has to do it otherwise also if they want to achieve 400 seats target.
West Bengal
BJP won 18 seats in the state in 2019, was a surprise for many and after creating a ruckus over the Sandeshkhali incident it’s interesting to see if it hampers the vote share of the Trinamool Congress and help the BJP to increase its tally in the state or not.
Uttar Pradesh & West Bengal are the states where BJP secured 60 percent of votes in the previous election and they need to increase it upto 80% strike rate to meet the target of 400 seats.
Haryana
BJP secured 58.21 percent of the vote in the state in 2019, but after the farmers’ protest and anti-incumbency, it’s difficult for the BJP to maintain its earlier performance.
Karnataka
BJP won 25 out of 28 in 2019 but Congress is posing a huge challenge in front of the saffron party after winning a majority of seats in state assembly election.
North VS South India Divide
In 2019, BJP won 210 seats out of the 285 from UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Gujarat, Assam and Maharashtra. Even we assume BJP becomes successful in maintaining their current record in North India, the party to meet the target of 370, still needs to win 160 seats from the rest of India. If we take West Bengal’s 42 seats and Punjab’s 13 seats, the BJP still needs to target South India, if they want to achieve ‘400 paar…’ dream.
BJP had won only 29 seats from 128 seats in South India. Out of which it did not win a single seat in Tamil Nadu (38 seats), Andhra (25 seats) and Kerala (20 seats). It won 25 seats in Karnataka and four in Telangana. This year after Congress’s state assembly election’s thumping victory Karnataka itself is challenging for BJP. Even after gaining the mileage over Katchatheevu iseland, the party needs to convert the vote share in winning seats.
If BJP maintains its current number of seats in North India, it still needs to win more seats in South India as compared to last time to cross 400 tally.
For the BJP/NDA to cross 370/400, they need to win 16 additional seats in UP and also win a majority in West Bengal and Odisha, and increase their tally in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh on its own or by forming new alliances.
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